Category Archives: Analysis

music subscription services way of future, ISPs should be sharing their windfall profits

 Music industry is getting no where with illegal downloads: U2 manager

http://news.therecord.com/arts/NightLife/article/779503

As far as solving the music industry’s financial woes, U2 manager Paul McGuinness still hasn’t found what he’s looking for. But he’s not about to stop beating the drum.

McGuinness writes a lengthy piece in the new issue of Rolling Stone addressing the file-sharing and piracy issues that he believes are largely the source of the meltdown of the music business in recent years. It’s an update and expansion on ideas he put forth at the international MIDEM music conference in Cannes two years ago, an event at which I spoke with him at length about some very specific recommendations on how to address those issues.

Now, as then, he holds Internet service providers — and the giant telecommunications corporations that control the vast majority of ISPs — responsible, arguing that they’ve built their industry to a large extent by providing free content, often irrespective of the intellectual property rights of musicians and other creative types responsible for that content.

When I sat down with him in Cannes, he noted that ISPs have no qualms about promptly shutting down the accounts of users who don’t pay their ISP bills; they should do the same for those who illegally share copyrighted Web content like music.

More than two years later, he writes in Rolling Stone’s Sept. 30 issue that’s just out, little has changed in that regard.

“For the world’s Internet Service Providers, bloated by years of broadband growth, ‘free music’ has been a multi-billion dollar bonanza,” McGuinness writes. “Unfortunately, the main problem is still just as bad as it ever was.

“Artists cannot get record deals. Revenues are plummeting. Efforts to provide legal and viable ways of making money from muse are being stymied by piracy. The latest industry figures, from IFPI (the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry), show that 95 percent of all the music downloaded is illegally obtained and unpaid for. … A study endorsed by trade unions says Europe’s creative industries could lose more than a million jobs in the next five years.

“Finally,” he adds, “maybe the message is getting through that this isn’t just about fewer limos for rich rock stars.”

Many of those rock stars have been reluctant to go on the offensive, because the problem is often cast in precisely those terms: millionaire musicians whining that they aren’t making even more money.

McGuinness still thinks, as he did back in early 2008, that music subscription services should be the way of the future and that ISPs should be sharing their windfall profits with the artists and labels that have helped them pull in that money. If they don’t do so voluntarily, government intervention should be the next step. He points to laws passed in France, England, South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand aimed at tipping the scales back toward equity for musicians. But that still leaves much of the world without any such protections.

“I think we are coming to understand that ‘free’ comes with a price,” McGuinness writes, “and in my business that means less investment in talent, and fewer artists making a living from music.”

The $64-billion question is: How many musicians, managers, record company executives or even ISP bigwigs will be willing to get behind McGuinness?

CBC (including radio) to stay the course

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/arts/television/john-doyle/the-post-stursberg-cbc-tilt-goes-the-tightrope/article1671986/

“Stursberg’s CBC is ratings-driven, populist, pop-culture-obsessed in its news coverage, lightweight, disdainful of the arts and mortally afraid of appearing highbrow.”

“…anyone who thinks that Stursberg’s departure means a reversal of his various TV and radio implementations is kidding him- or herself. The five-year plan has more to do with capital spending, hardware and financial management systems than it has to do with dramas and sitcom on TV or the genre of music played on CBC radio channels. Things are not going backward. If you worship at the altar of the old CBC of Peter Gzowski and Barbara Frum, you are not going home again. We’ll all be living with Stursberg’s CBC for a long time to come.”

Copyright debate turns ugly…

Heritage Minister James Moore ignited a wasp’s nest of angry responses when he labelled those oposed to copyright reform “radical extremists”.  Most of the response comes from those who do not wish to be hindered in how they choose to use digital media they have purchased.

However, no one seems to have an alternate solution for how the creators of digital media can be ensured that they get compensated for creating.  Everyone wants unfettered access to what is created, and unfortunately in this day and age, piracy has pretty much killed my ability to make a living creating music.

Digital locks will not prevent this, but what other model is there that today’s consumer would support that would ensure that I can get paid for what I produce?

Should I work at Tim Horton’s, and in my spare time, produce music for everyone to have access to for free?

Worldwide revenues from recorded music drops from 40 to 17 billion in last decade.

David Pakman, former CEO of eMusic, and now a venture capitalist, in an interview with Philip Leigh:

“David believes that the recorded music business has reached yet another mutation point. Over the past decade worldwide revenues dropped from $40 billion to about $17 billion.  Furthermore, unless the industry begins to proceed along a new evolutionary path he predicts the declines will continue for another five years before bottoming-out at perhaps $7 billion.”

http://insidedigitalmedia.com/musics-next-evolution/

Streaming services sees preference for mobile streaming

Streaming services such as Spotify who are trying to determine where they can make the most money from their service are seeing a higher demand for “multi-platform” access, which includes smartphones, for which they can charge a paid “premium” rate, as opposed to the free access “freemium” rate.

“Take multi-platform access, such as how Spotify makes users who want mobile access via their smartphone apps pay. Kumaran said users paying for multi-platform access use the service on average three times more than as those who don’t.”

@Web 2.0 Expo: Web Community Discusses Freemium Model
http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3ia9f1b586d315106411f76cc7380b4e67

Apple to Rule the Music World?

Phil Leigh’s Inside Digital Media released a report last month entitled “The Future of Apple” in which he predicts Apple’s plans to rule the world of music distribution (he called it “music discovery”), and that we (i.e. creators of recorded music) will have no choice but to play along with them.

That’s a Borg-like statement and we have yet to hear anything from Google or RIM on this subject,  the two other current big players in this market.   RIM seems to be blissfully unaware of this market, and Google may well be preparing a game-changing assault on Apple’s strong lead.

It is clear that there is a vacuum waiting to be filled, where someone can take on the role of “telling” people what they want to listen to.  The scary thing about Apple “owning” that role is how they would likely  play that role in the future. 

As an example, Apple has yet to allow Adobe’s Flash to be implemented on its iPhone/Pod/Pads (with the exception of YouTube videos, which run in a controlled environment).  Apple is reluctant to give Adobe the control over that aspect of the experience, and since Apple owns the baseball, the bat, the diamond, the field and all the air around it, there is little that Adobe can do.  So, the iPhone/Pod/Pad user has a diminished web browsing experience, given the prevalence of Flash useage on web sites.

If Apple does not perceive something to be in its best interests, it will stonewall, and if that something would be in the best interests of other parties, ie consumers, there will be little that anyone can do.

There needs to be healthy competition to keep Apple in check. 

Billboard has recently interviewed Phil Leigh about his report, and he makes some other bold statements, specifically about the role that Facebook will play in the future.  http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3i4062457efae56fa395d3a162524485be

The Paradise That Should Have Been

The Internet should have enabled artists to be able to create markets to sell their music and make a living, but this has not emerged. 

The Paradise That Should Have Been

http://thecynicalmusician.com/2010/01/the-paradise-that-should-have-been/

Even large sales produces teeny profits from Spotify

The profits from streaming services are small, even for big name artists.

Lady Gaga Earns Slightly More From Spotify Than Piracy

Lady Gaga got a million plays on Spotify and earned $167

http://www.hypebot.com/hypebot/2009/11/report-spotify-paid-lady-gaga-167-for-1m-plays.html

Selling "copies" (CDs or downloads) still the most profitable way to make money selling music

Glenn Peoples writes in Bilboard Magazine that access based models (ie subscription) may someday be the dominant way that music is disseminated, but a healthy functioning  model is no where in sight, and so the best way for an artist to make money still is to find creative ways to sell copies of your music.”

Analysis: CD and Downloads Are Toast? Not If You Want To Make Money Today

http://www.billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3i8ca14b8f869f03f0f9ef2b4c26f7fe11

The Cynical Musician reports that

“To generate revenue equal to the $1,160 per month (slightly over the U.S. Federal poverty line), an independent artist needs: 1,813 downloads per month at iTunes; 3,392 downloads per month at eMusic; 127,473 streams per month at Rhapsody; or 7,733,333 plays per month at Last.fm. Paradoxically, it says, CD sales are “still our best bet” for generating revenue.”

http://thecynicalmusician.com/2010/01/the-paradise-that-should-have-been/